Global economic prospects that have the potential to harm Indonesia have been mentioned by pemerintah officials numerous times. At this time, the governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), Perry Warjiyo, is also speaking out about the current state of affairs in addition to President Joko Widodo and Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani.
According to the report, both now and in the future, the world faces a number of risks that could result in economic genocide. Nevertheless, a few of these events have already occurred in the global economy. However, a few of them among them harm Indonesia's economy.
Perry explains that the first risk that stands out from the aforementioned BI is the threat of perlambatan pertumbuhan.
Aside from economic risk, she also noticed that several nations were at risk of entering remission. According to this, the global economy could contract by 2% this year.
"Pertumbuhan dunia semula tahun ini 3% kemungkinan akan turun menjadi 2,6% bahkan juga ada risiko-risiko menjadi 2% terutama di AS dan in Eropa," said Perry in a meeting with the XI DPR RI Committee on November 22, 2022.
BI asserts that the likelihood of a resolution in the Americas and Europe has already surpassed 60%. This situation will be resolved with the gelombang of the muslim dingin, which is anticipated to burst.
As a result of geopolitics, fragmented economic and investment policies, and slower growth, the winter condition in Europe this year may not be as bad as it was in previous years, the expert explained.
Both cases include moderate or high inflation. This year's worldwide inflation is anticipated to reach 9.2%. Inflasi in the AS may fall to 8,8%, in Europe to 10%, and in English to 11% this week.
"Energy prices are the only factor influencing inflation from this point on; there is no energy loss due to calamity or changes in geopolitical conditions. Energy inflation and panga inflasi that gradually connected to the populace's kesejahteraan, "paparnya.
The final condition, according to Perry, is a higher interest rate for a longer length of time or a high interest rate loan that will last a long time.
Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), also known as The Federal Reserve, and other central banks are affected by the arguable suku bunga acuan tinggi issue.
According to Perry, the Fed Fund Rate (FFR) in the AS was approximately 75 basis points (bps) lower this month, or 4%. Perry predicts that by December 2022, the FFR will have decreased by another 50 bps, or 4,5% to 5% over the course of the entire year.
"We anticipate that the previous year will see an increase from 4% to 5%. There are those who predict up to 5.25% and predict that Triwulan I and II will likely occur in 2023, although they do not expect things to change soon "Perry's jibes
Keempat is a phenomenon of the strong dollar. The all-time high for the dollar index is likely to be 114. None other than Indonesia has acknowledged this condition.
The declining Fed Fund Rate and falling US Treasury yield are to blame for the dollar's decline, according to Perry. Cash is king when it comes to risk going forward.
Global investors have money in likuid instruments, such as cash and near cash, despite their portfolio's rising risk. The condition is still present around the world, including Indonesia. It is explained in detail why there is a modal aliran.
Perry mentions several factors that are related to this, including lockdown Zero-Covid in China, geopolitical tensions between Taiwan and China, and anticipation about when the conflict between Ukraine and Russia would end.
Perry hopes that all Indonesian government agencies will work together to address this. "One, two, three times, sinergi. Coordinates, coordinates, coordinates. Coordinating must occur" Perry say.
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